Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Trolls Prediction Markets
During Coinbase’s third-quarter earnings call, CEO Brian Armstrong revealed a distraction: he was closely watching prediction markets about what he would say on the call.
Deliberate Word Choice
At the call’s end, Armstrong deliberately included words such as “Bitcoin,” “Ethereum,” “Blockchain,” “Staking,” and “Web3.”
“And I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blockchain, Staking, and Web3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call,” Armstrong said.
These words had been wagered on Kalshi and Polymarket by users betting that Armstrong would mention them during the call.
Impact on Prediction Markets
These “mention markets” are a niche segment of prediction markets. Bloomberg reported that $84,000 in total bets had been placed on whether certain words would be said during the earnings call.
While some users profited, Armstrong's actions highlighted how easily these markets can be manipulated when company executives are aware of and influence the outcomes.
Industry Reaction
Jeff Dorman, CIO at digital assets firm Arca, criticized Armstrong on X, saying, “you need your head examined if you think it’s cute or clever or savvy that the CEO of the biggest company in this industry openly manipulated a market.”
This incident raises questions about the integrity of prediction markets when insiders intervene.
Summary
Armstrong’s intentional word mentions during Coinbase’s earnings call exposed how insider knowledge can manipulate niche prediction markets, prompting criticism from industry experts.