Bangladesh at high risk of major earthquakes, experts warn

Bangladesh at high risk of major earthquakes

Bangladesh faces a significant risk of powerful earthquakes because it lies at the boundary of three active tectonic plates. Experts caution that accumulated tectonic stress could be released suddenly, triggering a devastating seismic event.

Tectonic setting and major faults

Geologists explain that Bangladesh is positioned where the Indian, Eurasian, and Myanmar plates converge, forming several active fault systems. Long-term energy build-up along these structures means even moderate tremors may be precursors to a much larger quake.

The country is influenced by multiple major fault and subduction zones, including:

Indo-Burma (Arakan) Subduction Zone.
Dauki (Dawki) Fault in the northeast.
Madhupur Fault and related central faults. These systems extend across and beyond Bangladesh, creating a broad high-risk seismic belt.

Historical earthquakes and seismic cycle

Specialists point to past major earthquakes in and around Bangladesh as a warning for the future. Events such as an 8.0 magnitude quake in the region in the early 20th century and strong shocks near the border in 2003 are cited as reminders of the area’s seismic potential.

Research on regional seismic cycles suggests that large earthquakes tend to recur in roughly century-scale intervals in the same broader zones. Since that indicative timeframe has already been exceeded, some scientists consider the probability of a new major event to be elevated.

Growing concern after recent tremors

Recent series of small and moderate tremors have raised public concern and renewed expert warnings. Seismological data show an increase in the number of low-magnitude earthquakes in recent years, which some researchers interpret as a sign of ongoing stress accumulation rather than its release.

Earth scientists emphasize that while not every swarm of small quakes leads to a large one, the pattern underscores the need for vigilance in a densely populated, structurally vulnerable country. They stress that Bangladesh’s exposure is not theoretical but a current and long-term reality.

Most vulnerable regions

Analyses identify several areas as particularly vulnerable to strong ground shaking and secondary hazards. Experts commonly highlight:

Dhaka and surrounding central districts.
Northeastern region near the Dauki Fault.
Southeastern region near the Indo-Burma Subduction Zone.

In the northeast, earlier great earthquakes have caused ground failure and liquefaction, demonstrating how soft, water-saturated soils can intensify damage. Along the southeast coast, a large offshore quake could generate a significant tsunami, threatening places like Cox’s Bazar and Chattogram.

Risks for Dhaka

Dhaka, one of the most densely populated megacities in the world, is considered highly exposed to seismic risk. Studies show that a large proportion of buildings in the capital are not designed to withstand strong earthquakes, especially on soft alluvial ground prone to liquefaction.

Model scenarios suggest that even a moderate-to-strong event near Dhaka could cause widespread structural collapse, disrupt lifelines such as gas and electricity, and severely hamper rescue efforts. Specialists warn that the combination of poor construction practices, narrow streets, and inadequate emergency infrastructure could turn a major quake into a humanitarian catastrophe.

Lack of preparedness and policy gaps

Seismologists and disaster management experts repeatedly criticize the low level of institutional preparedness. They argue that, despite clear scientific warnings, enforcement of building codes remains weak and many new structures ignore seismic safety requirements.

Public awareness campaigns and earthquake drills are still limited in coverage and consistency. According to experts, this leaves most citizens unprepared to react effectively during and after a strong quake, increasing the likelihood of casualties and chaos.

Recommendations from experts

Specialists describe earthquakes as unavoidable natural processes, but emphasize that human choices determine the scale of damage. They advocate several priority measures:

Strict enforcement and regular updating of seismic building codes.
Retrofitting or replacing the most vulnerable critical structures, including hospitals, schools, and key bridges.
Expanding public education on “drop, cover, hold on” and household preparedness.
Developing realistic emergency response plans, including search-and-rescue capacity and coordination among agencies.

Some academics also urge the government to fund long-term seismological research, hazard mapping, and integration of earthquake safety into school curricula. They argue that sustained investment in science and risk reduction is far cheaper than recovering from a major disaster.

Expert warnings in their own words

Researchers and practitioners convey their concerns in clear terms. One group of experts underscores that Bangladesh is “at high risk of a massive earthquake due to its location at the junction of three tectonic plates” and that “energy has been accumulating between these plates for centuries.”

They also highlight that “lack of preparedness” and weak enforcement of regulations could turn a natural hazard into a preventable tragedy. Several speakers at recent seminars stressed that without urgent action, future loss of life and infrastructure damage could be enormous.

“Bangladesh is at high risk of a massive earthquake due to its location at the junction of three tectonic plates: the Indian, Eurasian, and Myanmar plates.”

“Energy has been accumulating between these plates for centuries, which could be released at any moment in the form of a catastrophic quake.”

“Experts have expressed concern over the government's lack of preparation, noting that public awareness currently remains the only defense against such natural disasters.”

Author’s summary

Bangladesh sits on several active plate boundaries, and experts warn that without strict building codes, research investment and public preparedness, an inevitable strong earthquake could cause catastrophic human and economic losses.

The Daily Star — 2025-11-29