Geopolitics, Backsliding and Progress: What to Expect at COP30 Global Climate Talks
As climate change intensifies, some countries are retreating from climate commitments. Next week, negotiators will meet in Brazil to rekindle momentum. Alongside delegates from around the world, I will attend the United Nations COP30 climate summit in Belém, a city deep in the Brazilian Amazon.
Uncertainty clouds expectations for this summit, which faces some of the toughest challenges in recent years. In the United States, the Trump administration has cut climate science funding, halted renewable projects, boosted fossil fuel extraction, and exited the Paris Agreement once again. These actions have created significant geopolitical turmoil, overshadowing the global forum dedicated to synchronized climate efforts—even as climate issues worsen.
Last year marked a critical milestone: average global temperatures surpassed 1.5°C for the first time. Climate-related disasters are becoming more frequent and severe, with heatwaves, wildfires, and floods impacting nearly every continent in 2025.
National interests are deeply divided. Major fossil fuel producers seek to maintain extraction, while vulnerable Pacific island nations witness rising seas with deep concern. Without a centralized global authority to enforce climate policies, these imperfect negotiations remain the best forum for fostering collective action.
Key Dynamics to Watch at COP30
- The balance between fossil fuel interests and vulnerable nations’ demands.
- Efforts to restore international collaboration after recent setbacks.
- Strategies to accelerate climate commitments amid rising global temperatures.
"This year, the summit faces perhaps the greatest headwinds of any in recent history."
"Petrostates and big fossil fuel exporters want to keep extraction going, while Pacific states despairingly watch the seas rise."
Despite the challenges, COP30 remains the best available platform to coordinate and renew global climate action.
Author's summary: This year’s COP30 climate talks will confront deep geopolitical divides and climate setbacks, yet they offer a crucial chance to revive global commitment amid escalating environmental crises.